The East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) will have left the territory of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) entirely by January 8, 2024, allowing local authorities to secure the troubled east.
This week, military chiefs from the EAC troop-contributing countries met in Arusha to assess the departure programme after their mandate ended formally on December 8. They agreed for a month-long draw down, hoping for an official handover to incoming troops from the Southern Africa Development Cooperation (SADC).
But the smooth departure was already being hurt this week as violence continued, with uncertainty on the arrival date of the SADC troops.
According to a statement from the EAC on Friday, the draw down will be staggered until January. Kenya was the first to withdraw 300 troops, and 287 South Sudanese were expected to arrive home by the end of the day Friday. Uganda and Burundi contingent “will continue their withdrawal and back-loading of equipment by air and road.”
The latter two have parallel bilateral defense operations with the DRC and could redraft their soldiers to the same assignments under different mandates.
But, given that the EACRF wants to avoid leaving gaps that could be exploited by warring factions, it will depend on how soon the SADC troops arrive, a military source explained.
But the Arusha meeting raised concerns about the ongoing clashes in the areas the EACRF was deployed and urged the combatants — FARDC, M23 and other armed groups — to cease fire.
Congolese uthorities are bracing for more violence in the region due to the gap the regional forces is leaving.
Analysts say Kinshasa may be relying on the very countries that had sent troops there to seek pacification of the Kivus.
Fighting has been almost daily since October between the M23 and the Congolese army or their allied self-defence groups.
Yet even as the troops leave, Kenya, Burundi and Uganda have, each, existing bilateral arrangements related to security and defence cooperation with the DRC. Those arrangements are set to come into play immediately in what points to the weaknesses in the EACRF as seen by the government of President Felix Tshisekedi.
Ahead of the departure, sources indicated some of the troop contributors grew frustrated with Kinshasa’s apparent disregard for the relative successes the mission may have brought the country. Kenya, for instance, didn’t like the public criticism of its forces by President Felix Tshisekedi’s senior officials while ignoring the fact that the Kenyan contingent had helped protect the Goma airport from falling into hands of rebels.
The DRC is now banking on the success of a truce with Rwanda, arranged by Washington, according to people familiar with the matter.
Some experts advise Kinshasa not to burn bridges with the troop contributors. Nicaise Kibel Bel, a military and security expert based in Goma, told The EastAfrican the onus is on Kinshasa to pep up its military capabilities in dealing with a problem that foreign forces have failed to address.
“The Congolese army should now train to become a deterrent army but, in security matters, it is always better to have allies,” he told The EastAfrican.
FARDC should continue to cooperate with the Kenyan army especially in training, he said.
So far, it is expected that troops operating under bilateral arrangements from these countries will remain in the DRC. Burundi had a running cooperation long before EACRF entered the Congo, and Uganda had a joint military operation with the FARDC that has been running since November 2021 to hunt for extremists loyal to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF).
Kenyans, an official in Kinshasa indicated, will continue to train Congolese soldiers in Kisangani, in the northeast of the DRC, even though the initial parameters will not be changed to include any other troops on the ground.
In August, the DRC and Kenya signed defence agreements to strengthen military cooperation. Around the same time, the DRC and Burundi signed a similar agreement . This was an amendment to the earlier deal in which Burundi had deployed troops into the DRC.
On Sunday, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni said his troops would continue working with the DRC to target ADF inside the Congo.
Meanwhile, President Tshisekedi has been working behind the scenes to install military commanders loyal to his stable.
During the visit, Gen Ogolla lauded the Kenyan contingent for their achievements in Eastern DRC noting their significant role in protecting civilian lives in their area of operations and denying armed groups freedom to commit atrocities.
EACRF troops say they brought longer, relative, stability, even though they didn’t fire a shot.
At the time of deployment Goma city was on the verge of collapse as the M23 seized territories in North Kivu and moved its defense headquarters to Kanyamahoro hills, about 20 km to Goma, and just three from Mama Olivia where FARDC had established their last defence base.
M23 had further moved inwards to Rumagambo where they had taken charge of a strategic FARDC military base and military training facility from the local army. This maneuvers helped stall the construction of a key road from Rumagambo to Goma and halted the movement of goods and people along the Sake-Kilolirwe-Kitchanga both of which serve as the main supply route of food to Goma city.
The militia had also stalled the construction of the country’s second power plant and stalled government services. At the time, senior EACRF officials say Kinshasa had genuine concerns eastern DRC could splinter especially were M23 to take control of Goma airport.
EACRF say they averted the threat by offering a buffer. The forces also say they captured Kibati, Virunga-at the foot of Mount Nyiragongo an active volcano, Kibumba, and Mulimbi following the partial withdrawal of M23. The militia’s withdrawal is in line with the EAC Heads of State’s call for a ceasefire.
